"Abu Musa al-Ash'ari, r.a., narrates: I heard the Prophet,
pbuh, sayng: When a person does good and is happy and is
sorrowful when he sins, that is a true believer."
[Musnad of Ahmad ibn Hanbal. Hadith # 19794.]
Trump in Saudi Arabia.
by New Trend news Monitor
After that 110 Billion dollar deal, Trump may not be too
vocal against Muslims. That may benefit American Muslims and
Muslims in general.
The President does not realize that one can't be friends
with Muslims and Israel at the same time.
Israel is known as a terrorist entity by Muslims
globally.
Also, the concept of monarchy is opposed by Islam, and
Muslims often want to overthrow the Saudis, a process
initiated by Osama bin Laden.
Saudis do not recognize the rights of women which again
undermines the Saudi self-image as strong Muslims.
The 110 billion dollar deal is probably the biggest in US
history and will help the US economy and stabilize the Trump
government.
Claims that Saudis were behind 9.11, stories which were
planted during the Obama regime, will have a difficult time
now.
Br. Abu Talib
Remembering Malcolm X [al-Hajj Malik Shabazz]
by Abu Talib
There were numerous celebrations in the city of New York on
May 19 in various locations by different organizations.
Some went to the grave site of Malcolm X, Other had marches
in Harlem where some of the businesses closed out of respect
for Malcolm X Day which was his birthday.
In the evening there was a celebration at the Malcolm X and
Betty Shabazz Center in Harlem where there were testimonials
which mentioned what Malcolm X means to them. There were
various cultural performances.
About two hundred People came out to the event. The best was
when one of Malcolm x's daughters was there.. Also a woman
from Congress, Yvette Clark from Brooklyn spoke, as did
others like Les Payne who is writing an autobiography of
Malcolm X.
To my surprise there were lots of Muslims there also.
Malcolm X is relevant to these times that we are living. He
taught us to organize and to be with the people and stand up
for right and against injustice. whereever we see . That is
the duty of the Muslims here in America and around the
world.
Pashtun and Baluch nationalist groups of students attacked
Sindhi nationalist students. In the long drawn out battle
with sticks and stones, the two sides ended up opening up
with guns on reach other.
The gun fire was so intense that the police were too scared
to interfere.
At least 35 students were seriously injured.
it's a serious setback for Dr. Hoodbhoy whose pet project
was this university which he nurtured to keep out all
Islamic influences.
Th university is now indefinitely closed.
Shoora of Jamaat al-Muslimeen to Discuss Unprecedented Situation
facing Muslims of America
The central planning committee [Shoora] of Jamaat
al-Muslimeen will meet on June 17,2017
The following activists will lead the discussion:
Br. Robert Solano [TX]
Br. Abu Talib [NY]
Sis. Ayesha Jones [VA]
Br. Kaukab Siddique, [PA]
Organization
Sis. Kristi
Resources
Br. Abdur Rahman
Br. Ali Randall
Briefing on Minority Rights Violations in India
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 20, 2017
The worsening situation in India with respect to violations
of human rights and religious freedom has alarmed Indians
and people of conscience across the world. The three year
anniversary of the NDA government in India marks a grim
milestone in India's seemingly relentless drift away from
secularism and pluralism.
The Alliance for Justice and Accountability will hold a
briefing on "Minority Rights Violations in India," covering
the violation of human rights of minorities in India, over
the course of the last three years, at the Rayburn Building
near Capitol Hill, Washington, DC on May 23, 2017.
The coalition will release a report at the event on the same
subject. Coalition members, Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ), office
bearers of the Advocates for Human Rights (AHR), staffers of
various Congresspersons and media personnel are expected to
attend.
What:
Briefing on "Minority Rights Violations in India"
When:
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 3:00 PM
Where:
2255, Rayburn House Office Building,
50 Independence Ave SW
Washington, DC 20515
Who:
Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ)
Ajit Sahi (Advocacy Director, Indian American Muslim
Council)
Jennifer Presthold (Executive Director, The Advocates for
Human Rights)
For more information, contact Ajit Sahi at (571) 325
7997
Alliance for Justice and Accountability,
6321 W. Dempster St., Suite# 295, Morton Grove, IL
60053-2848
Latest Khutba
Focus on Male-Female Unity under Guidance of Taqwa and
Sharia. Support the Rights of Prisoners, Particularly
Islamic Political Prisoners.
On May 19, Br. Kaukab Siddique gave the Juma; khutba and led
prayers at Masjid Jamaat al-Muslimeen in Baltimore. Owing to
the sudden onset of 90 degree weather, the air conditioner
was ineffective. Brother in charge says it will be better
next time.
Here is an outline of the khutba for distribution on
line:
America is a nation of laws. It is also a nation which
has more than 2 million prisoners. If we include the
affected families, the people on parole and people waiting
to go tp court, the people in the grip of the justice system
are between 5 to 10 million.
People entering a federal prison and many other prisons
are subjected to stripping and body cavity searches, some of
which amount to a form of legalized rape.
People lose their identity as humans and are turned into
mere numbers. They can't wear their own clothes. Family
visits are limited. Even when released, they are marked
people and find it difficult to get a job or return to
normal life.
Increasingly people in prison are embracing Islam. Most
of them are sincere but some do so to avoid the evils which
are rampant in the prison system.
More dire is the condition of Islamic political
prisoners. They are put in prison because the government
thinks their thoughts are dangerous or they tried to contact
a mujahideen group. Often even their children cannot embrace
them and they have to talk to their loved ones from behind a
plastic partition.
It's very important for the prisoners to receive letters
and support from outside. Each time a letter, even a
postcard, comes in, it makes their day.
Next time I will bring postcards, paper and envelopes to
write letters to prisoners.
Part 2
Islam does not say that men are superior to women, Nor
does it say that Arabs are superior to non-Arabs.
Islam negates race, class and gender as categories of
superiority or inferiority. Islam bases nobility on
character and Allah-oriented behavior.
Islam recognizes race and gender and provides guidance
in the context of each group and individual but does not
support evil based on "my nation" or "my situation."
Our sisters are still not getting their rights owing to
male-oriented thinking of leaders and cultural background of
national groups.
Much evil has seeped into Muslim communities. Many of
them are blatantly violating the norms of Islam. Under
Sharia they should be punished for violence against women
[execution for rape] and for misappropriation of funds.
Unfortunately we don't have sharia law in America but we
should be aware of the condition of the evil doers.
Unity cannot be achieved without the unity of Muslim men
and women under the rules of Sharia and direction of
Taqwa.
The Ummah concept is central to Islam. Propaganda
against groups which are fighting America in the Muslim
world comes out every day from US media. Most of what is
being said against Islamic groups are fabrications and
war-time propaganda. The Qur'an commands us to check out
news coming from corrupt ;people.
Du'a: O Allah help us to seek Guidance from the Qur'an every
day. Help us to seek the Sunnah of Muhammad, pbuh, every
day. O Allah give us vitality and health, jobs which are
beneficial, halal and healthful food. O Allah give us
spouses and children who will stand with us against the
oppressors.
Invitation to Think
from Br.Robert Solano
Americans Want Slaves.
(Article published this week in the Brownsville Herald)
The letter written by Mr. and Mrs. Birdwell and published
May 16 had a beautiful poem and it woke me up to the reality
as to why there is a Senate Bill 4 in Texas ans why
President Trump is so much against immigrants living in
America becoming legal residents.
President Reagan gave amnesty to more than 5 million illegal
aliens more than 20 years ago. Next thing you know they went
ahead and got decent, good-paying jobs, purchased homes,
bought new cars and became Americans. We had to bring in
more illegals to do the jobs they left behind. We had to get
people to pick up the crops, babysit, do construction work
without union wages and, most of all, not get lazy.
The reason people want SB 4 and keep arguing about legal
status, without doing anything to really end it, is because
America is in dire need of slaves. It needs really cheap
labor so it can maintain its wasteful consumer culture. We
need not only to go to other lands to kill, but also to take
their natural resources.
We also need people here who can be treated as what are
generally called "illegal workers", with no rights to Social
Security benefits, workmen's compensation law, driver's
license, etc.
We call ourselves followers of our respective religions, but
in reality we are not any better than the slave owners of
the 18th century or those who abused the Inquisition to
steal property from the heretics.
Repent for there will be a Final Judgement Day.
- Br. Robert Solano lives in Texas and is a member of the
Jamaat al-Muslimeen leadership team. He's conducted da'wa
over the past several decades to the Hispanic community and
given the Spanish translation of the Qur'an to more than 500
people.
Here's the poem Br. Solono refers to in his article:
"I am the woman who takes care of your children; I am the
fellow that picks the crops; I cook and serve the food you
eat in restaurants; I am your gardener; your home
improvement contractor hires me
Without me the cost of your food doubles;crops rot in the
fields.
Maid service is unaffordable; I do work that you cannot or
will not do.
A lot of people look down on me and call me illegal; I am
among those who contribute 12 billion dollars a year into
Social Security, even when I do not expect to receive any
benefits when I am old or disabled.
I am here because you have been displacing people with your
military invasions and economic penetration. I have been
here 500 years and I will remain, claiming my right to this
land that was taken from me.
I will resist because I am a human being just like you."
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Rejects International Court's Order on Indian Spy.
People are Dying of Heat in Karachi. JI Supports Rights of
Teachers.
by Ameer al-Azim & Qaiser Sharif
LAHORE, May 19; Ameer, Jamaat e Islami, Pakistan, Senator
Sirajul Haq, has said that the Pakistani nation rejected the
International Court of Justice's interim order regarding
Indian spy Kulboshan Jadhav, and India's stance on the
issue.
Addressing the Karachi Bar Association on Friday, he said
that Pakistan was an independent and sovereign country and
it was not bound by the IJC decision.
Sirajul Haq said that the main problem of the country was
absence of rule of law. He said that more than fifty people
were gunned down in Karachi during the visit of former Chief
Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, but the
culprits had not been brought to the book. Similarly, he
said, more than two hundred workers were burnt alive in the
Baldia Town factory fire Karachi but justice had not been
done in that case either.
The JI chief reiterated his stance that all those who had
plundered the public wealth must be brought to
accountability. He said that in the Panama leaks case
decision, there was not a single line that favoured Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif. He said that the JI had approached
the Supreme Court and the judges of the apex court were
answerable in the court of Allah Almighty. He said that the
entire nation should demand the Prime Minister to step down
till the investigations in the case were over.
Sirajul Haq announced that the JI would stage another sit in
against K. Electric on May 24. He said that abound five
thousand people had died due to heat stroke in Karachi. He
said this was not an issue of Karachi alone and the JI could
not remain silent on it. He asked the Sindh government why
it was not attending to the problems of Karachi.
The JI chief said that four years ago, Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif had promised to bring Dr Aafia back within one
hundred days but the Prime Minister did not have the courage
to write a letter to the US President on the issue.
The JI chief said that if Iran and Saudi Arabia fought
against each other, both would be destroyed. He said he had
counseled Pakistan government to strive for a rapprochement
between the two countries.
___________________________________________________ Rights Of Teachers.
LAHORE, May 19; Secretary General, Jamaat e Islami, Liaqat
Baloch, has said that the interim order of the International
Court of Justice was partial, going beyond its jurisdiction,
manifestation of its enmity towards Islam, and a favor tour
the US and India.
In a statement here on Friday, he however, said that the
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government and the Foreign
Ministry too had been plagued with mismanagement and
indecision in the case of Indian spy Kulboshan from the very
first day and all state institutions had not been on the
same page . Therefore, he said, the government itself was
responsible for the set back in this issue of national
security.
The JI Secretary General condemned the lathi charge and the
arrests of the clerks and the school teachers in Islamabad.
He said that the clerks and primary school teachers all over
the country were facing numerous problems.
He said the government attitude towards the primary
education seemed to be hostile. He urged the government to
abandon its efforts to impose a destructive education system
at primary level under foreign pressure.
with Thanks to Sis Kristi
Narrated by Ibn Maajah, 3660;
al-Albaani in Saheeh al-Jaami', no.1617
War News
Syria
Battles East of Aleppo, Near Palmyra and east of Hama as IS
mujahideen try to advance on three fronts. Kurdish Advances
against al-Raqqa continue in Slow Motion. Civilians bombed
out of Damascus and Homs Suburbs Opt to leave for Islamic
Rule in Idlib Islamic Province
May 15-21. Mujahideen forces led by the Islamic State [IS}
are locked in battle with Shiites=Alawites led by Lebanese
Shia Hizb, Iranians and Russians supporting the mass
murderer Assad.
East of Aleppo, the regime forces are trying to stop the IS
advance into Aleppo and have made minor advances with
Russian air support.
Around Palmyra. Assad's forces [Hizb, Shia militias and a
mix of Russians and Iranians] are involved in heavy clashes
with Islamic state forces. This area is important owing to
oilfields.
In the Salamiyah area 33 km southeast of Hama, Islamic State
launched a major offensive and captured the entire area with
heavy Shi'ite-Alawite losses. This was a stronghold of Assad
owing to the Ismailis who live here. The Russian air force
is busy trying to stop the mujahideen advance on Hama.
In the Barzeh suburb of Damascus and the al-Wair suburb of
Homs, the population has opted to leave for the province of
Idlib which is under Islamic rule.. The regime uses air
force and artillery to destroy all civilian facilities. It
can't win militarily owing to the resistance of the
population. Then the regime agrees to let the civilians go
and thus gets a "victory" in a destroyed city.
In the north central corridor of Syria which Turkey has
captured, people are protesting in the city of El Bab after
Turkish artillery and air destroyed the infrastructure of a
popular suburb.
On the Iraq border, a regime Iran-related military column
received a US air strike after it refused to move back from
the US army facility on the border. Eight regime related
troops were killed.
Raqqa is being bombed by the American coalition as the
Communist Kurds advance on the city from north and
south.
American reports say that Islamic State leaders are now in
the new IS stronghold of Deir ez Zor and America is
marshalling forces to squeeze the area where IS has
surrounded an Assadi garrison after it captured the
area.
Iraq
Mosul Week 31. Trump week 17
Inner City Defense remains Intact Despite Heavy attacks. IS
hits Basra and Baghdad.
With US air support, Regime captured districts to the West
and Northwest of the Inner city. IS Flag flies on Landmark
Mosque.
On May 20 the US-installed regime declared victory in Mosul
and the end of its operation to capture West Mosul.
However, Associated Press reported on May 20 that 8 square
kilometers of Mosul, including the old city, are still in
the hands of the Islamic State, which is the same situation
as it was two months back.
AFP, ABC, the Independent and Guardian have the same
reporting: Fighting continues around Mosul.
The Bagdad regime made it a habit to report victories when
in the districts around West Mosul it would prevail without
fighting. The districts were wide open to US air strikes and
the Shi'ite tank columns which the fighters could not stop.
They would withdraw without losses and Baghdad would
announce another victory.
The citizens of Mosul are fleeing at the rate more than a
hundred a day owing to the terrifying sound of US and Shia
air strikes. Al Jazeera is reporting that citizens of Mosul
have been deliberately bombed in many cases, ostensibly with
the consent of USA. The original suspected figure of 200
civilians killed in one US air strike has risen to more than
a thousand.
The Islamic State is holding on to Tal Afar and several
towns to the west of it.
Hawija, areas of Kirkuk and parts of Diyala are also with
IS.
On May 20 IS carried out an attack in Basra, killing 8 and
injuring 41 [AFP]. Basra is 350 miles south east of
Baghdad.
An area of Baghdad too was attacked by IS the same day,
killing 19 and injuring 33.
News Within the U.S.
Palm Beach, Florida
Fox TV's Roger Ailes Left a Permanent Negative Impact on the
American Way of Thinking.
He thought women were his slaves.
New Trend Special Report
Roger Ailes died of a fall in his bathroom on May 17. He was
77.
His career as the power behind Fox TV had an unhappy ending
after Gretchen Carlson, an important personality in Fox,
accused him of attempts to sabotage her career because she
refused to have sex with him. He did not oppose her
contention and made a $20 million settlement with her.
Similar allegations came from Magyn Kelly, the star of Fox
broadcasting though she is the mother of several children.
She left FOX. There were probably other women too who had
similar experiences with Ailes.
It appears that under Ailes, women workers were treated like
highly paid sex slaves. On the surface Fox presented itself
as a conservative TV outlet with claims to being
Christian.
Ailes protégé was O'Reilly who specialized in finessing
ridicule of minorities, be they Black or Mexican. One trick
was to pick out a minority person who had been indicted for
a serious crime and then impute that such criminality is
common among minorities.
Muslims were targeted by Fox during the Ailes era. This was
an ongoing process of clever abuse. A university professor was
presented as a terrorist and cornered so badly that the
government moved against him.
Ailes hero O'Reilly supported the war in Afghanistan and
Iraq in the most blatant way possible. O'Reilly defended the
entry of US troops ingto a mosque in Iraq where they
executed seriously injured Iraqis who had taken refuge in
the mosque.
Conspiracy theories were the staple of Fox TV under Ailes. A
female judge would appear on Fox and claim that America was
in great danger from terrorists and even the ENTIRE
electricity of America may be cut off.
White supremacist ideas came out of Fox but were properly
camouflaged and subtly defended.
Trump is a great admirer of Fox and got many votes from the
Fox theory that America is in bad shape owing to Mexicans
and Blacks and is in great danger from Muslims who ate ALL
potential terrorists.
CNN as Fox's competition absorbed some of Fox's conspiracy
theories.
Today Ailes is dead and being honored by Fox as a true
patriot.
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Another police officer has been acquitted of outright
cold-blooded murder...CAUGHT ON TAPE!
by Sis. Aisha [Jamaat al-Muslimeen] [May 17]
In Tulsa, Oklahoma, officer Betty Shelby was acquitted of
manslaughter in the killing of Terence Crutcher, who was
stopped for a traffic infraction.
Recently, I read an opinion written by Josmar Trujillo, an
activist with the Coalition to End Broken Windows. Josmar
stated that the idea of adding body cameras to officer
uniforms is a ploy to trick the public into believing that
the politicians and top cops are serious about ending
misconduct by police. However, according to Josmar, we do
not have an issue with acquiring evidence in police
criminality cases. The issue is political corruption.
District Attorneys are politicians who are voted into office
and for some reason find it difficult to get convictions in
police criminality cases.
That has been my stance all along!
The police have the protection of these politicians and can
get away with things that the average civilian cannot.
Police officers have been videotaped and photographed
assaulting and murdering unarmed or armed but nonthreatening
civilians and, although the prosecutors have stated that
these police officers were at fault, they have been
acquitted or a grand jury failed to indict!
In the case of Terence Crutcher's killing, none other than
Benjamin Crump (an Al Sharpton associate) is representing
the family. It is devilish and tragic but, there are Jewish
and Black attorneys who see opportunity to gain wealth with
these wrongful death cases. On 5/18/2017, a day after
Officer Shelby's acquittal, Terence Crutcher's family
announced they will sue the city of Tulsa, Oklahoma for his
death.
These ambulance-chasing attorneys actually work with the
police-protecting prosecutors and have no intention of
challenging how they mishandle the prosecution of these
rogue cops. The only thing these ambulance-chasers do is
make money from these wrongful death lawsuits, which the
taxpayer pays. They are not interested in helping the family
seek justice, which would mean officers serving jail time
for their misconduct.
At some point, families will need to decide if they want
justice while staying poor or should the cop escape justice
while these families line their pockets. I hate to suggest
that families are looking for a payday because it is such a
sensitive issue but, these victims' families are being
misguided and steered in the wrong direction, more than
likely by the Al Sharpton's and Benjamin Crumps. There has
been a pattern with these guys, which is why Sharpton, after
30 years, has lost his "go-to" spot among a lot of Black
people. We now need to start avoiding Benjamin Crump,
too.
Then again, why would the family need to hire Benjamin Crump
as their attorney when the prosecutor was voted into office
to represent the families in these types of cases?
The prosecutor is the people's attorney. When prosecutors
decide that they will not bring rape charges against the
police commissioner's son or allows a grand jury proceeding
to drag out over eight months when it normally takes one
week, all of society should be in an uproar!
Unfortunately, many Americans do not understand the jobs of
politicians in this country. Maybe they found Civics class
too boring and they either skipped it or fell asleep while
the teacher was talking. It is this lack of knowledge that
led to so many protests after Trump was selected by the
electoral college. Many protesters felt robbed but, that is
how voting for U.S. Presidents work.
We need to hold prosecutors and the State Attorneys General
(their bosses) accountable for possible prosecutorial
misconduct and even demand disbarment from the Bar
Association in these matters. These questions need to be
asked even when the victims' families become disinterested
while focusing on the wrongful death cases.
VIEWPOINT
Libya's unending civil war: When weapons trump politics
from AMEC, Briefing No. 3/2017
[Published from South Africa]
Three years have elapsed since Libya's current power
struggle began, with no end in sight. For a solution to be
found it would need to be inclusive, focused more on
governance, and clear consequences for military disruptions
need to be stipulated. The increasing regional and
international interference, especially militarily, is
worrying in this regard.
Almost three years have elapsed since the reconvening of
Libya's General National Congress (GNC) in July 2014 and
subsequent division of the country into two, now three,
centres of power, with no conclusion forthcoming. The April
meeting between the Government of National Accord's (GNA)
Fayez al-Sarraj and General Khalifa Haftar initially
engendered some optimism. However, their differing
understandings of the balance of forces, and views on ways
out of the current impasse meant they were unable to agree
on a unified statement. Continuing clashes in Sabha, in the
south, mainly at the hands of forces aligned to Haftar,
suggest that the Libyan National Army still believes in a
military solution. This is despite attempts by global and
regional powers to foster compromise. The 2014 Algeria plan
and subsequent 2015 Skhirat (Morocco) agreement have had
only limited success. Key in accounting for these failures
has been the interference of foreign powers, and a lack of
inclusiveness. Russia's intensified support for the Libyan
National Army (LNA), commanded by Haftar, has also been
worrying.
With the Islamic State group (IS) largely ejected from its
Libyan strongholds, a renewal of the 2015 Libyan political
agreement (LPA) is required. However, for it to succeed it
must be more inclusive, and expand its focus on governance.
Moreover, clear consequences for outside interference need
to be stipulated. A fresh election is a likely eventuality,
as a means of finally solving the impasse. However, this
will only succeed if it is seen as fair and representative,
and if it is coupled with security reform.
Roots of the current divide
Former president Muammar Gaddafi's personalised and extended
authoritarian rule meant that governance institutions were
severely deficient. Following the NATO-led ouster of the
regime in 2011, the new National Transitional Council was
not very successful in dealing with governance challenges.
Social service provision was non-existent and armed militia
flourished. A May 2013 political isolation law, passed under
pressure from various militia, resulted in the removal of a
small number of technocrats and politicians who had had
minimal ties to the Gadhdhafi regime. This was aggravated by
the limited support provided to Libya by international
institutions, which incorrectly calculated that the removal
of the regime would ensure a consolidation of democratic
governance.
Disillusionment amongst the population increased, and by
February 2014, remnants of the old regime under Haftar's
command began agitating for a revolt against the governing
GNC. Initially prompting widespread opposition from Libya's
political and military elite, by May 2014 Haftar launched
'Operation Dignity' in an attempt to provide a Libyan
version of the regional backlash against Islamists willing
to participate in electoral politics. Successfully appealing
to perceived marginalisation amongst eastern federalists,
tribes and separatists, Haftar's forces greatly increased
their capacity, garnering support from the country's naval
and special forces.
The May 2014 parliamentary election exacerbated the
situation. The emergent Council of Deputies (now called the
House of Representatives (HoR)) was comprised of a limited
number of Islamists, elected with a 20 per cent voter
turnout. Fears of this 'new' marginalisation were greatly
influenced by the 2013 Egyptian coup, which overthrew the
Muslim Brotherhood's (MB) Mohamed Morsi, and the declaration
of the MB as a terrorist organisation by Gulf Arab
heavyweights in March 2014; thus, Libyan Islamists sought to
reconstitute the GNC. Under the Libya Dawn banner,
sympathetic militia began supporting the GNC, and by July
clashes intensified around Tripoli airport. As a result, the
country experienced a de facto division between eastern and
western Libya; the HoR relocated to Tobruk and intensified
its support for Haftar's dignity campaign, which now overtly
sought to confront Islamist-leaning politicians and militia.
Haftar garnered support from Egypt and the United Arab
Emirates, which are both fearful of participatory Islamists
and had led the regional campaign against them. Financial,
intelligence and military support from the two states meant
that Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has been able to
consolidate control of much of the country's east.
The situation has been aggravated by the growth of IS, which
consolidated control of the Libyan city Sirte in May 2015.
Western countries' exaggerated perception of IS's military
strength, and their wariness over migration to Europe from
Libya had seen countries such as Britain and France
coordinate with Operation Dignity, unintentionally
increasing suspicion amongst Islamist-leaning politicians
and militias. This myopic focus saw these states push
through the Libyan political agreement (LPA) in December
2015, in an attempt to create a 'unified' government, which
would sanction direct intervention. The imposition of the
LPA, which resulted in the formation of the Government of
National Accord (GNA), stalled what was then a domestic
process between local actors. The GNA, under the leadership
of Fayez Sarraj, has thus received limited support from the
GNC and HoR; and the Sarraj administration exercises limited
territorial and administrative control. The HoR has voted
against endorsing it, while parts of the GNC have formed the
National Salvation government out of Tripoli.
Present situation
Currently there are three centres of power in the country:
the GNA, GNC (Salvation government) and the HoR. The HoR
remains based in Tobruk and has consolidated control over
eastern Libya. Haftar's forces have pushed GNC-supported
militia, under the banner of the Benghazi Defence Brigades,
out of most of Benghazi, and encircled Derna. Moreover, in
September 2016 Haftar's forces successfully captured Libya's
oil crescent, allowing it to control most of Libya's oil,
and enabling Haftar to increase his influence in the HoR.
Through staffing local councils with military allies, Haftar
is now more influential than the prime minister recognised
by the HoR, Abdullah al Thinni, and HoR speaker Ageela
Saleh.
Conversely, the GNA controls parts of western and southern
Libya, including the influential city of Misrata. Misratan
forces support the Sarraj regime, which is regarded by the
international community as the legitimate government. Parts
of Libya Dawn are allied to the GNA; however, more hard-line
groups have resolved to back the GNC and its head Khalifa
al-Ghwell. Prior to March 2016 Sarraj operated out of Tunis;
he has since managed to consolidate control in parts of
Tripoli. Ghwell had attempted a coup in Tripoli in September
2016, but GNA-supported militia rapidly quelled this effort.
Notably, many GNC-aligned militia have frequently
interchanged support between the GNC and GNA, although most
would support the GNA in a confrontation with Haftar. In
March 2017, for example, the GNC-allied Benghazi Defence
Brigades briefly gained control over the oil refineries of
Ras Lanuf and Sidra, most likely with support from Misratan
militia. Moreover, in April, GNC-aligned forces supported
the thus far successful effort by Misrata's Third Force to
repel LNA troops from capturing the Tamnihint airbase in
Sabha.
Conflict among the three parties is currently centred in the
south and centre between the HoR and GNA, and in Tripoli
between the GNA and GNC. At present, although Haftar's
forces have the best training and equipment, a military
victory is unlikely. This is especially since the federalist
and separatist elements that support Haftar in the east are
not present in the west, because the Misratan militia are
reasonably well trained and possess aerial capabilities, and
because many western tribes still support the GNA. Recent
clashes, between Misrata's Third Force and Haftar, over
aerial bases in the southern city of Sabha and over the
strategic central city of Jufra will shape the military side
of the conflict in the immediate term.
IS in Libya has been largely defeated, and only a few
hundred fighters remain in the country's south. This is
mainly the result of actions of the Misratan militia under
the al-Bunyan al-Marsoos operation, and because of support
from US airstrikes. Sirte was regained in September, and IS
is unlikely to regroup. Significantly, Sirte's recapture
weakened the Misratan militia, allowing Haftar's forces to
move west into Jufra. IS's relatively rapid routing from
Sirte does point to the group's comparative weakness in the
country and the often-exaggerated perception of its
influence.
Politically, all three governments possess only nominal
control over areas they claim to govern. Social services
such as electricity and health care are often irregular and
intermittent. Inflation has increased and the Libyan dinar
has weakened. Oil production, the country's main source of
revenue, has increased to around 700 000 barrels daily.
However, in recent months, the GNA and HoR have disputed the
sharing of such revenue.
Efforts to form a unified government incorporating the HoR
into the LPA have faltered. In December 2016 it was agreed
that the LPA would be amended to include Haftar's command of
the Libyan army and to provide a greater role to the HoR in
shaping policy, the two main factors impeding HoR
endorsement. The subsequent meeting between Haftar and
Sarraj reinforced this, especially as the two reportedly
concurred on the need to reform the GNA's presidential
council to allow for HoR representation, and that Haftar
would head a unified national army. However, it is unlikely
that Sarraj would allow Haftar a voice on a reformed
presidential council, and it is implausible that militia
aligned to both the GNC and GNA would sanction the LNA being
incorporated into the GNC's presidential guard if it meant
that their influence would be subsumed.
The March 2018 date for presidential and parliamentary
elections, agreed upon by Haftar and Sarraj, provides a
means out of the current impasse. However, for this to be
successful, the election would need to be seen as fair and
representative. Turnout would need to be greater than the 20
per cent seen in the 2014 poll, and stipulations for
regional seat allocation would need to be enacted,
especially since federalism and secession have previously
had much appeal. Moreover, a formula for military
unification would need to be concluded and implemented in
the interceding period, failing which militia groupings
would continue to hold sway.
Increasing role of foreign actors
Since its inception, the Libyan conflict has been greatly
influenced by outside powers. Gadhdhafi's overthrow can
largely be attributed to international support for rebel
groups and the NATO-enforced no-fly zone. Haftar's forces
had subsequently received vast amounts of military backing
from Egypt and the UAE, which deployed ground and aerial
forces into eastern Libya. Haftar's recapture of Sidra and
Ras Lanuf in March 2017 was planned in Egypt and executed
with the assistance of UAE aircraft, based out of a
UAE-controlled airbase in eastern Libya. The Misratan
militia and those allied to the GNC receive support from
Turkey and Qatar; however, this is limited when compared to
foreign support for Haftar. The IS threat has meant that
France, Britain and Algeria have also deployed special
forces to the country. These have usually been in support of
different militia groupings, including Haftar's LNA,
aggravating the conflict and often impeding efforts to
engender political compromise.
Worryingly, Russia has intensified its focus on the country.
Over the past year, both Sarraj and Haftar visited Moscow,
and in January 2017 Haftar was hosted on the Russian Admiral
Kuznetsov aircraft carrier. Comparable to its renewed focus
on Egypt and support for the Asad regime in Syria, Moscow
does not distinguish between militant extremist and
participatory Islamists. It has thus militarily supported
Haftar's Operation Dignity and is likely to provide over two
billion dollars of arms to the LNA. Haftar reportedly
participated in a video conference with Russia's defence
minister, Sergei Shoigu, while on the Admiral Kuznetsov, and
methods of circumventing the arms embargo were discussed.
Haftar has thus been emboldened and has intensified his
intentions to militarily confront Tripoli. Notably, prior to
Gadhdhafi's ouster, Moscow concluded over ten billion
dollars in arms and trade deals with Libya, and is seeking
to reactivate those agreements. In addition, agreements over
Russian use of Libyan aerial and naval bases have also been
concluded with the HoR in the east.
Thus, regional and international diplomatic and political
manoeuvres have had only limited success. The Algeria
initiative of September 2014 was impeded by Egyptian support
for Haftar and a subsequent parallel Egyptian initiative.
Conversely, the LPA has been hampered by the willingness of
international actors to work with Haftar to combat
militancy. Recently, Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia collaborated
in an attempt to formulate a more localised solution to the
Libyan crisis, which would involve all actors. This
culminated in the Tunis Declaration of February 2017, which
calls for the protection of Libya's territorial integrity,
involvement of all actors in finding a political solution,
and desisting from the use of force by regional and
international actors. It is difficult to see this being
implemented, especially since neighbouring countries are
already involved in the conflict, and because they believe
their interests can better be guaranteed by Haftar
prevailing. Egypt continues to support the LNA, while there
are reliable reports that Russia seeks to work through
Algeria to circumvent the Libyan arms embargo. Further, the
UAE, through its organising and hosting of the meeting
between Haftar and Sarraj, seeks to initiate its own
negotiations. These will likely undermine those held by the
Algeria-Tunisia-Egypt troika, which have African Union
support.
Conclusion
While most international and regional actors concur that a
political solution is the only means of solving Libya's
conflict, they maintain support for different parties. This
support, military and financial, has emboldened these
groups, which continue to seek a military victory. The
consolidation of governance structures has thus not occurred
as different groups divert resources to military efforts,
and negotiations aimed at amending the LPA have stalled,
owing to disagreements over who will be in command of the
military. Though it was a possibility in 2014, secession is
no longer on the cards, mainly because international actors
are not in favour; however, polarisation between eastern and
western Libya is calcifying, and secessionist sentiments
occasionally arise in the south. In the immediate term, the
confrontations in Jufra and Sabha will greatly influence
which faction possesses the upper hand, but the outright
military victory of a single faction is unlikely.
International and regional powers need to ensure that
good-faith negotiations are expedited. Key in this regard is
facilitating the maintenance of a ceasefire and ensuring
that military support from outside powers results in clear
consequences. Building governance institutions, which was an
aim of the Skhirat agreement, must be emphasised and
pursued, and an agreement over the sharing of oil resources
formulated. The LPA needs to be revised; however, caution
must be exercised to ensure that the agreement represents
the balance of forces and is not seen as favouring certain
factions.
